All about that base (model): Tesla’s $35,000 car is here

Today, Tesla announced some very interesting moves. Some are incredibly risky, others have been expected but weren’t expected today.

First, Tesla has announced that the Model 3 Standard Range is now available for sale. For the promised-two-years-ago price of $35,000. The base model is a base model – cloth seats, no power seats, manual steering wheel adjustments, etc. The range is 220 miles per charge, which is fine for a commuter car or to run around town, but maybe not the best road trip machine (even if Tesla’s supercharger network is fairly robust around the US). The most interesting part is that the base trim has a cousin – the “plus” edition that has parts of the premium interior and a slightly longer range – 240 miles – for only an extra $2,000 (which I think is underpriced, I would have made it 3k, add another $1,000 to the mid-range too). I think in hindsight, this is what Tesla would have made the base trim if he didn’t put his foot in his mouth two years ago about the base trim being priced at $35,000. I would expect in a few years the standard range model at $35,000 will go away, and the “plus” model will become the new bottom of the line.

Ultimately, I’d say that for most people the “plus” trim is the Model 3 to get for those who want to get the “cheap” Model 3. You get a little bit better range (an extra 20 miles) but also much nicer interior – power heated front seats, vegan leather seats, better sound, and smartphone docking. For only $2,000 that seems like a steal (again, I think it should be more). If you’re going to spend this much on a car, make it a good experience.

ModelBase PriceDifferentiating Features
Standard Range$35,000N/A
Standard “Plus”$37,000vegan leather seats, better audio, power heated front seats
Mid-Range$40,000264 miles of range, full premium interior (heaters for all seats, satellite view on maps, in-car internet and streaming media, etc.)
Long Range (RWD)$43,000
Full premium interior, 325 miles of range
Long Range (AWD)$47,000AWD, 310 miles of range, full premium interior
Performance$58,0000-60 in 3.2 seconds. ’nuff said.
Option Price
Paint colors: gray, blue$1,500
Paint color: white$2,000
Paint color: red$2,500
Autopilot (traffic-aware cruise, auto-steer$3,000
Full Self-driving (pending regulator approval)$5,000
White interior (full premium interiors only)$1,000

Second, they revamped the autopilot and full self-driving (FSD) option feature sets. What used to be called “Enhanced Autopilot” is now split across AP and FSD. And while EAP used to cost $5,000. AP+FSD now costs $8,000. Of course, the prices of the car as a whole didn’t change, which tells me its not about getting more money out of the consumer, rather its about figuring out what the right options mix, understanding your fixed and variable costs, and getting the ASP of the cars just right so they can meet their profit goals.

Next, and by far the most risky thing Tesla has ever done since the falcon wing doors is the shuttering of their retail stores. Tesla will become a pure online sales company, while they continue to expand their service network. Most stores and galleries will close. This is a radical turning point in the company’s history (whether it’s a good one or not, only time will tell). Tesla is now relying on buyer’s risk appetites (you can return the car within 7 days or 1,000 miles) and other owners selling people on the car, rather than on the ability for someone to go down and see them in person and take a test drive.

The stores closing give me mixed feelings. I recently brought my wife to the local Tesla store, and had her test drive a Model 3 (ostensibly to gain her approval, but also to test the fit of our kid’s car seat in the back). Being able to go see the cars in person and sit in them is a great asset to the company (the gallery approach), but I have to say I was disappointed with the sales rep and the test drive experience – the test drive was literally over within 7 minutes and the total route was less than 2 miles. I think we sat in the car explaining all the do-dads prior to the test drive longer than the actual drive.

I think the galleries would be a much better approach than dealership-style experiences. And Tesla knows that unless you get a lemon, you’re not going to go through the hassle of buying a car and then return it within 7 days (especially not a sexy Tesla). But ultimately people want to at least sit in the car before they buy one. It is very risky. I’d almost be tempted to tell Tesla to bring back a much much much more modest version of their referral program with the store closings to get owners out there and use the network effect to sell the car to new customers.

Finally, Tesla made a few other changes to their lineup – bringing back the Model 3 LR RWD, discontinuing the Model X “Standard Range”, and un-derating the Model 3 LR RWD range back up to 325 miles (it was always that, but Tesla voluntarily de-rated the range).

Things that are actually risk factors for Tesla

With all the crazy reasons the shorts have to short the stock and talk negatively about Tesla, let’s look at the actual risk factors that face Tesla over the next 12 months

1. Lack of demand. This would probably manifest itself and some form of economic recession. The good news for Tesla is that the wealthy tend to prosper no matter what, and that is their target market. 

The other possibility is if Tesla can’t get to the point where they can offer the $35,000 standard range model. A good chunk of the pent up demand will evaporate if those reservation holders can’t buy the $35,000 car. Given Tesla’s work in Q3 2018 to reduce the cost of the car, it is likely they’ll be able to continue that work 10-15% cost reductions per quarter) to allow them to offer the base price car. This has already manifested itself through the Medium Range vehicle now offered because of work done to reduce costs. 

The other ways that a lack of demand could be a problem don’t seem likely – specifically other car manufacturers figuring out how to build compelling electric cars in large enough volumes to meet demand, and choosing to sell them nationwide. Companies like GM and VW promise they’ll introduce a ton of EVs and plug-in cars, but will probably only sell them in CA and OR and anywhere else required by law. And the US is last to get the cars because Europe and China currently have stronger requirements for EV sales. Global manufacturers will design, build, and ship cars for those markets first and the US is an afterthought. 

2. Product mix. This quarter will be the highest average selling price the model 3 will ever have. Because they aren’t selling the cheaper models. The only models sold are the $75,000 performance, $55,000 LR AWD, and $50,000 LR RWD. The average sale price was north of $55,000, which won’t be the case probably ever again (I think it’ll eventually settle around $47,000 – lots of base models with modest option mix and many AWD/LR models and few performance units). 

This means that the free cash flow and the profit Tesla earned this quarter might be only about 15% less than what they will ultimately earn at a full run rate of 7,000+ Model 3 units a week at an average sales price of $47,000 and 25%+ gross margin. So expect somewhat flat free cash flow and profits for the next 6 quarters (which is fine if they bank it and pay off their debt and their stock price rises to above $360 so most of their outstanding convertible debt becomes shares rather than debt). 

3. Paying for future expansion while paying off debt. Specifically the factory for the Model Y vehicle – how much does it cost and where does it get built? Fremont/NUMMI is full and can’t accommodate another model line (if it could there wouldn’t be a tent), so it has to be assembled somewhere else. If the factory costs $3B most of that capex will come in the second half of 2019 and first half of 2020. While Elon wants it to be an alien dreadnought it is more reasonable to expect that there will be incremental improvements – things that have already been discussed are wiring harnesses and wiring bundles that are easy to manipulate by robots so allow more mechanization of the product line. 

4. Federal investigation. Apparently there may be a federal investigation of Tesla going on. Not quite sure what they’re investigating (the SEC has settled the civil charges over the “finding secured” debacle) so we’ll see but unless there is outright fraud going on I don’t think we’ll see charges. If no banking executives were charged criminally after the 2008 crash I find it hard to think that Elon or anyone else will he charged for being too optimistic on their projected growth or anticipated production rates. 

Oddly Specific SMS Spam/Phishing Attempt

So this isn’t good – got a spam SMS at one in the morning. It’s a bad sign when the SMS is specific enough that it uses your name, your wife’s name and its sent to your phone number only. The action to take was a link hidden behind URL shortening. It said “there is a new request from {wife’s name} 5 mins ago trying to connect right now” from a number 706-752-xxxx.

I’m trying to think who would have all those pieces of information (my name, my phone number, wife’s full name) and how they could be compromised. Was it a company like Amazon or some other online retailer? Could it be my employer or health care provider? Financial?

In some ways its kind of scary to think how many people have access to this information. I know better than to click on these kind of links, but it is incredibly annoying to sit and wait for the other shoe to drop (the company involved announcing they’ve been hacked) and then work on remediating whatever needs to be addressed. In the meantime, maybe I need to change my passwords again for my email and online shopping websites.

Leaving AT&T – for either Verizon or T-Mobile

So I’ve decided that after 17 years, I’ve had it with AT&T and their now slower-than-Sprint LTE speeds in Las Vegas. So when the iPhone 6s comes out this fall, I’m jumping ship. So who should I switch to? Verizon is the gold standard for cellular networks, but it also has the golden price tag. But, with T-Mobile’s fastest data speeds and John Legere’s promises that they’ll have coverage nearly equal to Verizon by the end of 2015, they’ve become a contender. Like all things, it comes down to money. AT&T has decided that they’re going to increase their dividend by 4c/year per share, while cutting CapEx (how much they spend on capital expenditures, from new towers and equipment to spectrum acquisitions).

On top of the price for service and a single line for T-Mobile (or adding a second line to my fiancee’s Verizon plan), there is also the cost of upgrading to a new phone every year. Previously with AT&T, I was able to use other family member’s upgrades. But that wont be happening in either case.

Figuring out which plan is cheapest for me is way more difficult than it should be. I’ve got at least four scenarios: with Verizon, either traditional subsidy with paying to upgrade the phone every 12 months (paying for a device in full every other year), their Edge program which now requires 75% of the device to be paid off before I can trade it in for a new one; T-Mobile Jump/installment plan or purchasing the device outright. Purchasing the device outright on Verizon is a horrible deal – they still charge you the full $40/mo (which includes a roughly $15-25/mo subsidy that you aren’t using) even though you bought your phone.


Going with T-Mobile’s Jump plan, its $27.08/mo for the device and $10 for the mandatory Jump insurance ($175 deductible). Already we’re up to $37.08/mo. You also have to pay $99 upfront for the 64GB device, as well as the sales tax on the full amount ($60), so we’re up to $160 in up-front costs and $37.08 per month. With the $60mo data plan, the total annual cost is $1,324.96. With the Jump plan I get to trade my phone in for a new one (plus $160) every 12 months.

Buying the device outright, the base price of the 64GB iPhone is $750 plus tax, about $810 in my area. I upgrade my phone every year, so that’s 12 months of usage and depreciation. If I can sell my year-old phone for about $400 ((right now, Gazelle is low-balling me at $345, so I figure 10 more months of use plus factoring in their low-ball price is around $350-400)), that leaves me on the hook for at least $410. To make things more equal between the Jump plan and this option, lets add in AppleCare+ on the purchased iPhone, $99 to cover the phone against accidental damage ($79 deductible). With the $60mo data plan, the total annual cost comes to $1,229, or $95.96 less than the Jump plan, plus a much lower deductible in case something were to go wrong.


Verizon’s subsidy plan means paying $323 up front for the 64GB device every other year (on subsidy) and $810 ($750 + tax) up front every other year (not upgrade eligible), but being able to sell the phone every year for around $400. Purchasing AppleCare+ would be an extra $99 per year. This works out to an average of $166.50 per year for the hardware. The monthly line access would be $40, and the marginal cost over my fiancee’s data plan is $30, so the total cost runs about $1,105.50 per year (higher in some years, lower in others).

Verizon’s Edge plan is a worse deal. While you don’t pay anything up front other than tax ($60), the monthly device payment is $38.40 (phone payment and insurance) and the monthly line access is $15/mo (on 10GB+ plans) and the marginal cost over my fiancee’s data plan is $30. The total cost so far is $1,060.80. But in order to upgrade, you have to trade in the phone and 75% of the device cost has to be paid to Verizon. After 12 months I’ll only have 50% paid off, so I have to cough up another $187.50 to trade in my phone and get the new one, bringing the total annual cost to $1,248.30, $142.80 more than the subsidized plan.


The benefits of going with Verizon here are obvious – being on a multi-line plan is cheaper than two individual line plans. The Edge program is a bad deal, but not by staggering margins. My fiancee might stay on the Edge program since her Android phones only make it about 18 months before becoming very slow and annoying, which fits the current Edge rules very well. As long as she can manage to not damage her phone too badly.

The biggest variable is the resale value of the iPhone after 12 months. If its only worth $300, then the Jump/Edge plans start to look much more attractive because the carrier is taking the resale hit, not the consumer. I think its OK as long as I stick with Apple devices since they seem to have higher resale values than Android devices.

Barring any substantial improvement from AT&T (not likely since they are cutting Capex), I’ll likely be leaving for Verizon when the iPhone 6s comes out. I’ll have to pay AT&T an ETF but I’m OK with that.

Brief thought…

In light of me turning 30 this week…

And while conventional wisdom may offer the dubious claim that your teenage years and early 20s are the “best of your life,” woe be onto to them who confuse one chapter of their life for the whole of it, for they will be doomed to repeat it in a series of cycles whose returns are ever-diminishing, and thus hold themselves back from telling any other story.

In the end, adulthood isn’t a single decision you make, but a long series of decisions you make every day for the rest of your life. And the best reason to grow up isn’t because it is expected or required, but because it means moving forwards. Because while it may also involve incredibly tedious things like mortgages and car payments, growing up is a natural function of seeking a life that is more dynamic than static, of choosing ambition and hope over avoidance and fear, of wanting to know who you’re going to be and not just who you were, even if that takes you away from the things you used to love.

Jumped ship to Google Apps 3 mo. ago, haven’t looked back…

For the longest time (as in, since around 2001) I’ve been hosting my own mail server and web server. I tried to make it a number of things – blog host, email server, place to access documents, data, etc. The only thing it still does today is host this blog.

I’ve embraced the cloud.

Three months ago I switched off my mailserver and moved it to Google Apps hosted service. I only use 4-5 email accounts, and the service is free to those with less than 25 accounts (50 if you’re a non-profit agency). I also moved the email system for this blog, as well as the email system for a non-profit group I volunteer for over to Google Apps as well.

Things have been just about perfect.

Not only do I get all the email hosting services, I get the Gmail web interface, I get syncing to my phone via Microsoft Exchange protocol (better than IMAP or POP3), HTTPS and all the robustness of Google’s incredibly high uptime.

Beyond just email, I also get Calendaring (also through MS Exchange protocol), Google Docs, and soon I’ll be able to roll up all the other Google services I use (Google Reader, etc) into the same account so I don’t have to try and have 3-4 different Google accounts logged in at once – yes you can do it but its prone to errors.

The app with the biggest impact so far is Docs. From any computer anywhere in the world (almost) I can access my library of documents over HTTPS (so my IT department cant see what I write) and just create a word processing document and write down all my ideas, or create a spreadsheet to do some calculations for something for me to refer to later. All the functionality I need is there to write simple documents (nee screeds) and spreadsheets – page/cell formatting, printing to PDF, etc.

Looking back, I have a hard time thinking about how I did this before. If I had an idea while I was at work, I’d have to write it down on my iPhone’s notes app, and then hope I remembered later to open the notes app back and and look at it. Now I can just create a document, write it down, and then when I get home and open up my web browser, the document is there, staring me in the face.

And the best part is that its free. Thanks Google!

Will you ever want to buy an electric car?

Note this is not an attack on electric cars – I think cars like the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf are the future. We cant live on oil forever, especially not with China and India adding two billion people to the working class over the next 75 years.

But my question is more a question about innovation. If Li-Ion batteries improve 8-10% per year, do you want to invest anywhere between $8,000 and $15,000 for a battery in the first few years of this decade? Even after prices level out, will a 40% increase in range (or a similar decrease in cost) be enough to keep you from buying the battery outright? What about the residual value of the battery after 8-10 years of (ab)use in a vehicle.

The first premise is that batteries improve 8% per year. This appears to be close to constant (until major step-changes like changing chemistry from NiMH to Li-Ion), and has been noted by Elon Musk of Tesla Motors.

The next premise is that if batteries are constantly being improved, and will continue to improve until at least 2030 (around the time we hit the theoretical limits for Li-Ion), that constant innovation will push prices on older batteries down, in the same way when Intel produces their fastest chip and put it in the top of their price list, everything else gets knocked down a pricing level. Beyond that, as production ramps up, per unit costs will come down. This is a double whammy on battery prices – as such A123 representatives have speculated on end-of-2012 pricing of $400/kWh from about $750 in mid 2010 (a kWh will propel a Prius-like car approximately 4 miles, and a large Ford Explorer-like vehicle about 2.75 miles.

The argument to buy says its bad to lease anything because you don’t end up owning anything. At the end of the five year financing, you own the car and battery. But over time and with each recharge, batteries lose capacity, and that could be exacerbated depending on the climate you’re in, how you treated it (faster recharge = more degradation), if it is liquid or air cooled, etc. The return-on-investment calculations vary depending on your driving patterns, so you need to make sure that an electric car is right for you. If you lose your job or change jobs and your driving patterns change significantly, you might find yourself not having a positive return-on-investment compared to buying a traditional gasoline or regular hybrid car (you might end up not driving enough or driving too much per day).

The leasing argument is much more interesting (and complicated). The reason to lease is that the battery has a fairly fixed lifespan – 1,500 cycles or whatever the cell manufacturer promises. However, even after the batteries might no longer be suitable for driving (this would adversely affect the resale value of the car), they can still be used in applications like power grid storage and stabilization. This residual value of that battery could be 50-75% the price of a new battery. Returning the car after the lease and letting the dealer replace the battery, send it back to be remanufactured into something useful, and then installing a new (lighter, more powerful) battery and updating the car’s system for that battery is an easier course for the consumer instead of having to do that and pay for it before trying to sell it, or take a hit on trade-in value.

Leasing can also bring down the per-month costs – instead of paying for the entire car, and then getting a substantial bump in the trade-in value for the battery, the user (for the most part) only pays for the depreciation of the car during its use. As seen in both the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf, the price for the lease (estimated $350/mo) is much less than what you would expect on cars costing between $27,000-33,000 after tax incentives.

Another non-conventional argument for leasing is the increasing rate of technology invading vehicles. From in-car entertainment, in-car communication (think: replying to text messages verbally), to safety features. While I don’t have a problem buying a new $300 iPhone every year, I certainly will not buy a new car with such frequency because its in-car entertainment is better than the car I currently have (software upgrades aren’t likely to help much in terms of adding new features – my 2009 Ford Escape hasn’t had any new features added to its in-car computer systems since I bought it). By 2015, most cars should have anti-collision systems to stop the car before it rear-ends the car in front of it (its already on some high-end cars today). By 2025 cars will be able to drive themselves down the highway and navigate to the exit, and even around some roads. It wont be fully autonomous but it will take care of 90% of your driving.

One of the ideas being tossed around is a hybrid – buying the car (shell, interior, electric motors, transmission, etc) and leasing the battery, often in conjunction with battery quick-swapping systems instead of dealing with lengthly recharge times – while battery technology might increase 8% a year, there is no way to increase recharging times for a given level of safety and source electrical systems: recharging a battery after 3-4 hours or 250 miles of all-electric highway driving will take 11 hours at 240V/30A (the most you’ll be able to get at home), and 5.5 hours at 240V/70A (the most you’ll be able to get in a commercial environment – e.g. an office building or parking lot). Even a 480V DC 50kW fast-charge circuit will still take 90 minutes. The only way to rapidly recharge the batteries is to have parallel 50kW fast charging systems hooked to one car, however fast-charging batteries can advance their degradation rate.

Its an interesting decision – there are clear pros to each choice, whether to buy, lease, or just buy the shell only and lease the battery. I would recommend that folks lease a first generation electric vehicle if they want to drive one, simply because of how much knowledge car companies and battery makers are going to learn the first few years about automotive batteries, and you don’t want to be stuck with an outmoded design or fatal flaw. By 2015 the prices of batteries will come down enough making the purchase of a second or third generation electric car reasonable if you carefully compare it to your driving habits compared to the vehicle’s EV characteristics.

Quick Thoughts on the new MacBook Air

Got the new 13″ MacBook Air today (which is impressive considering that I ordered it less than 24 hours ago and overnight shipping only cost $16). Loaded out with a 2.13GHz CPU, 4GB of RAM (not upgradable so I’m stuck with 4GB for the next 4-5 years of use), and a 256GB SSD.

Its an engineering marvel. The first MacBook Air was a revolution in that they finally had the idea to minimize the circuit board inside that houses the CPU, memory, etc. and then try and fit it in such a thin design. Though the UFO/Flying Saucer design was novel, it wasn’t until after Apple had more experience assembling things in tiny form factors (see iPad and iPhone 4circuit boards and how small they are compared to the rest of the interval volume being occupied by batteries).

Now that Apple had figured out how to cram everything you needed for a real laptop on a tiny circuit board, it was time to revise the housing and design of the MacBook Air. This was the result. And it was good.

The more (but not completely) square design allows for ports on both sides of the unit. Eliminating the door that was needed by the flying saucer bottom of the laptop. This adds a second USB port, display port out, and SD card reader on the 13″ version. I don’t have a need for the SD card slot, but I’m sure if I was more artsy or hip I’d have a 13MP DSLR and take moody photos and need to unload my SD card somewhat frequently into iPhoto.

When Apple says its the future of laptops they’re right. Intel’s next CPU has a graphics processor on the same piece of silicon. It wont be long before the large areas needed for two separate packages now can be combined into one package. With the advent of the Mac App Store, people will need less CDs and DVDs so optical drives start to disappear. Side note: I wouldn’t be surprised to find large vendors with lots of units (e.g. Microsoft, Adobe) looking to cut special deals with Apple ($99 copies of Microsoft Office Home Edition with Apple taking less than 30%, probably 20%), with the clear goal of going 100% digital, with the side effect of reducing piracy.

People don’t need anything much faster than a 2GHz Core 2 Duo for using the internet, especially if the video they are watching is decoded using the GPU (and less power than a CPU), which it is on the MacBook Air and other Mac laptops with the Nvidia 9400M and 320M chips. Sure if you’re running AutoCAD for the Mac, Photoshop, or Maya you’ll need more horsepower. But then I don’t think this is the laptop you want – you’ll fit better with the 15″ Macbook Pro.

Despite being a niche player in terms of market share, Apple never acts like a niche player. They target their hardware to the broadest possible audience in the segment they’re trying to address. Its why we don’t see Apple quad-core laptops, its why we don’t see more exotic high end video cards (I’m just glad we get decent video cards now – I still have my old Macbook with the GMA950 video, bleck!), its why there aren’t dual SSDs in RAID, etc.

The big push here seems to be the cloud. The problem is that Apple doesn’t have a lot of cloud services to offer – just MobileMe which isn’t that good – I feel like I get better service with my free Google Apps account – email, calendar, docs, etc, and I pay only $20/yr for my domain name for it.

There are only two downsides to this laptop.

First is an artifical restriction by Apple – to get the fastest CPU in the 11″ or 13″ class you have to pick the largest SSD. This isn’t much of a price increase on the 11″ model (64 to 128GB) but on the 13″ model, the jump to a 256GB SSD is a $300 price premium. My original desired model was the 13″ 2.13Ghz with a 128GB SSD. However Apple doesn’t make any in that configuration. So I had to fork over the $300 (ouch) to get that faster CPU. I’m tempted to find someone who has an 11″ model who wants to send me the $300 and their 128GB SSD and I’ll swap them the 256GB.

Higher resolution 13″ display. This might be a pro for most people (and I will list it below under the positive points), with my and my constantly deteriorating eye sight, I have to blow the font size on web pages up pretty high to read the screen on my old Macbook, and with the higher resolution screen I have to hit Command + one extra time.

While there were a number of upsides…

Stereo speakers. And I think Apple applied what they learned with the iPad to make the speakers on this sound decent. I think they’re doing a Bose-like setup (speaker -> small “acoustical chamber” -> output).

Higher resolution screen. As I mentioned above, its a negative for me but a positive for just about everyone else.

Solid state drive. During the keynote Steve said it was 2x as fast, but in reality its much faster than that for the types of disk operations your average application is going to be having compared to a 1.8″ or 2.5″ HDD.

Weight. The laptop is very light. You could carry one around in a backpack all day and not notice it.


For the sufficiently techie looking for an ultraportable (11″) or small (13″) laptop, isn’t averse to paying for a Mac and going without an optical drive (or leeching from a Mac or Windows PC with one), and isn’t looking for a laptop to do heavy lifting, the MacBook Air is the new standard.

I can see the future in the MBA line – in two years when Intel is at 22nm and can put a much faster dual core CPU (in terms of performance, it wont be much faster in terms of GHz) and a built-in sufficiently fast GPU and SATA 6Gb/s with an even faster SSD, we’ll wonder why people hung on to those heavy, chunky laptops for so long. With another 15% of battery life (Li-Ion batteries improve about 8% per year) we’ll see another hour or so of battery life too.

Apple and the Verizon iPhone – 2011 Edition

So in the past week, the Apple rumorsphere has blown up again on more rumors about the CDMA iPhone. We’re all a bit tired of it and just want the phone to be out already.

The lead time on manufacturing chips is fairly large. It takes 12-16 weeks to fabricate a chip from silicon wafer to end product packaged and ready to be soldered onto a PCB. So 3-4 months. If you wanted them mid-December, you’d need to start production mid-September. If Apple wants a million chips, Qualcomm would need to get going now.

The biggest question now is not when is it released, but when is it announced. This is a calculated decision – more than even the decision to make a CDMA iPhone (which more or less falls into the DUH category given how Android is doing on Verizon and Apple doesn’t want to cede a perfectly viable piece of the market).

So how do they decide when to announce a Verizon iPhone?

1. Speculative Momentum. Every time a rumor comes out, it generates headlines. Announcing its going to be out for sure kills this cycle. You’ve only got so much to announce after you’ve made the initial announcement – things like the prices of data plans, any other terms and conditions, visual voicemail support, etc.

2. The Holiday Season. You probably want to announce it before December 1 for a corresponding January/February launch. People generally only get to update their phones every 2 years. If you announce 2-3 months prior to the release date, people will hold off long enough to get a suitable demand at launch. If you assume people get a new phone every 2 years, and Verizon has over 90M customers, that’s 3.75M customers every month that get a new phone. Let Christmas pass without an announcement, you’re likely to have some people frustrated that they just got a new phone and have to wait so long to get a Verizon iPhone. The counter-argument is that Apple is likely to be supply constrained for a while (first 3 months) and they’ll still sell every unit they make, so pumping up demand isn’t necessary.

3. FCC Certification. This used to be an issue, but isn’t as much anymore. Apple seems to have few problems these days with submitting devices to the FCC and requesting confidentiality. The only minor slip-up was the internals of the iPad ending up on a website the day before the launch in April, which isn’t that big of a deal since they would have been discovered the next day anyways. Assuming a device takes 2 months (maybe more around the holidays) then it would be submitted in late November for a late January launch.

4. An actual, factual deal – handshake and signatures. This is somewhat obvious, but they’ll need to actually come to terms and agree on things like phone price, feature set (from a phone/network perspective) and other things like what Verizon expects Apple to filter out of the App Store (network issues).

There is a lot of talk about unveiling it at CES since the CEO of Verizon has the keynote. I think that’s incredibly stupid speculation. It would be very un-Apple like for them to let a partner announce the phone. Even if Steve showed up, Apple would want to hold its own event. And January is probably too late – after the holidays and many purchasers are stuck for another year or two on other phones.

I’m inclined to pick a mid-November announcement. I think a September announcement with the refreshed iPods is possible, especially in light of Apple’s September 30th self-imposed deadline of figuring out what to do with the iPhone antenna issue. Apple could announce the iPhone 4-and-a-half in September for a January release with a physical fix, but who knows.

Bonus: If Verizon wanted to get a leg up on AT&T they’d do the WiFi hotspot thing.

iOS 4.0 Quick Review

Hey now, hey now, the bugs are back (#)

I’ve been using iOS 4,0 for two weeks now, and I realize I forgot how much I dislike iPhone OS iOS x.0 releases. I’m especially disappointed that a bug from the 2.0 version of the OS is back.

Issues with Mail Part I

First issue is that iOS (since 3.0) doesn’t play well with POP3 accounts. iOS does not close its POP3 connection to the server, leaving it open and letting the server timeout the connection after a minimum of 10 minutes (per the RFC that governs POP3 mail servers). How do I know this? I run my own mail server and look at the logs myself – iOS on the iPhone or iPad does not close its POP3 connection when you close the Mail app on the phone. It just leaves it open and lets it timeout. On the other device (or the desktop) the system will report an error about being unable to log into the POP3 account.

This is an issue when you have multiple devices checking a POP3 account every 15 minutes – an iPad, an iPhone, a desktop PC and a laptop – and half of them don’t play nice with each other. For the uninitiated, you can only have one client open a POP3 mailbox at once – so until that 10 minute timeout passes you cant log in with a different email client.

Issues with Mail Part II – Electric Boogaloo

The “I’m not checking mail automatically” bug from iOS 2.0 has returned with a vengeance. It only took about 12 hours after the initial install of iOS 4.0 before I noticed that my iPad was getting new emails but the iPhone wasn’t. I played around with the phone and realized, yup, the same problem that I had with iOS 2.0 has returned and there isn’t much I can do about it other that spend a weekend switching from POP3 to IMAP (not what I was looking forward to) and hope that it solves my issues (it should since IMAP allows multiple simultaneous connections).

For reference, if anyone at Apple ever reads this and cares enough to fix it – I have 4 POP3 accounts and an Exchange (Google) account on both an iPad an iPhone set to 15 minute intervals. Switching to IMAP fixed the POP3 issues.

Still no useful AVRCP support

AVRCP is a remote control protocol over Bluetooth. The iPhone supports a very limited set of commands – play/pause/stop. However other devices, specifically my Ford Sync system in my car, support more advanced AVRCP implementations that support next/previous, searching, etc.

Whats that noise in my pocket?

Twice in three days, when I’ve disconnected my iPhone from the USB port in my car (Ford Sync system), the iPhone continues to play music out of its speaker instead of stopping (which is what it used to do, and what it should do). If I don’t notice it immediately I’ll put the phone in my pocket and then hear this background noise…

Battery Life

When the iPhone was checking mail regularly, it ate through battery life quicker than with OS 3.0. Nothing streaming or going on in the background, just treating my phone like I did before. I turned on the battery percentage indicator to get a better feel for it, but around that same time the mail app stopped checking mail automatically.


Not much multitasking to speak of – the apps that support it haven’t been released to the App Store yet. There is a neat animation to illustrate when you’re switching between apps so you know the app is still running in the background.