Battery Technology Forecast

So I’ve been reading more and more research on batteries lately and I’ve come up with what I think are some reasonable estimates on the different types of technologies and when we’ll see them and what they mean.

(sorry for the poor formatting of the table, this WP theme is really narrow)

Technology Energy Density (Wh/kg) Power Density (W/kg) First Production First in Cars Implications
First-Gen Tech 100-125 900 2008 2010 These are the batteries the Volt & Leaf launched with. Some more recent EVs have slightly better tech (Teslas, new Fords, RAV4 EV, etc)
Silicon Anodes 200-300 1500 2013 2014 The first significant boost to Li-Ion batteries since the electrification of the vehicle started in 2010. EV range will increase to about 125-150 miles, from 75 today.
Layered Manganese Cathode 400-500 1200 2015 2017 The second major boost, this will push EVs to 200 miles of range. Prices come down enough that two car households will now start buying an EV to replace one of their gasoline cars.
Lithium-Sulfur 600-750 2000 2018 2020 EV range increases to almost 300 miles, enough to alleviate range anxiety for most drivers. Fast-charge systems between cities are robust enough to support long distance driving east of the Mississippi and along the west coast.
Lithium Air 1000 500 2020 2022 The low power density relegates this technology to grid backup at first, but after a while is improved to work in pure EVs (wont work in plug-in models). 400-500 mile range EVs become common with this technology.

Don’t hold me to this, no one can really predict the future. This is all based on how I see things going. The next 18 months or so will tell – can companies start to deliver on their promises of silicon anode batteries that have good enough cycle life for use in an electric car. If they can then we start to see larger gains in battery tech – instead of an 8-10% gain in energy density per year, we see closer to 20% per year.

Things I learned as a web developer from the Comic-con ticketing fiasco

Today was the big day – at 9AM pacific, tickets went on sale for San Diego Comic-con 2013.  Unfortunately, their web developers had a few bugs in the software, one of which bit me bad enough it killed my ability to secure tickets.

As a web developer it hit me about 15 minutes in as to why I wasn’t moving up in line (and the “customer service” line was busy the entire time). Once I opened the Developer Console in Google Chrome and saw the JavaScript errors I knew it was over.

  1. Store all static assets on a CDN. This is the bug that bit me – there were some JavaScript resources that it was trying to pull from the server that timed out with 503 errors (service unavailable, usually due to demand). If these files were stored on a CDN all over North America & the world, it wouldn’t have been an issue. Even if they were hosted within the same “cloud” instance, if one critical piece of the cloud goes down, it would take all those requests with it. Why is it a big deal if the JavaScript doesn’t load? Because the JavaScript had the code that would refresh your position in line, and when it was your turn, redirect you to the portal to buy the badges. So what ended up happening to me was that I was #22,397 in line, but I never advanced in line because the JS that was responsible for moving me up in line never loaded and never executed.
  2. If the next page is going to take a while to load, tell people. The other big issue I saw the white page of mystery. Basically, after you clicked the big green “GO” button at 9AM, if you made it into the EPIC (the name of their ticketing system) waiting room, the screen would be blank for a while, for me it was about 90-120 seconds. But then the screen would come up and tell you what place you were in line, what not to do (don’t refresh the page, etc). But people didn’t know what to do with this infinitely loading page. What I would have done was serve a static HTML page, and then used AJAX to retrieve that person’s place in line (via the session key), fill in all the details and then let them wait it out until they’re at the front of the line.
  3. Sometimes, just putting it in on a cloud-based system isn’t enough. Sometimes you might need more than one cloud-based backend. Partition the servers (e.g. 20,000 tickets on each) and go from there. Likewise, multiple card payment services might need to be used in order to process card swipes quickly (you might need 3 or 4 different providers, and you just switch off between them based on a hash of an order ID #). 

So thats what I learned as a web developer to cope with high demand events.

Now as a nerd, I’m still pretty pissed off I wasn’t able to get a ticket, even though I was lucky enough to make it into the waiting room. Some time around May they’ll release some more badges, but likely the scramble for them will be more desperate and furious than this one.