I’m quite happy to hear a mainstream automaker like GM will release a 200 mile EV that will be available for general sale (not limited to CARB states like CA, OR, NY) and it will be affordable. Its just their timing is bad. With gas around $2.75/gal around the country, people aren’t worried about switching to EVs. Its not until its back above $3.50 do people start to flinch and $4/gal is when they pitch a fit. We’ll see what gas prices are in early 2017 when the vehicle is released, and how that affects consumer behavior. I just don’t foresee a return to $4+/gal gasoline anytime soon.
I’ve been a proponent of raising the gas tax, and indexing it to inflation. I’d like to see the national gas tax raised 6c/gal, and then indexed to inflation. Boosting the current federal tax by 33% would allow the country to repair its deficient highway system, with the side effect of construction jobs.
Some notable pundits have suggested a “gas floor tax” of $3/gal, but that really wouldn’t work since oil companies, refiners and station owners would just keep the price at $3/gal and keep the profits for themselves, rather than sell it below $3/gal and turn the money over to the feds to bolster the highway fund. If you wanted to keep the price of gasoline elevated, you would need to create a supplemental gas tax that would index it to the price of a barrel of oil – an extra 25c the following month when the average oil price is below $60, 50c below $50, 75c below $40.
Ok, enough about infrastructure and gas taxes.
The other issue I have with this EV is that it’s built on the new Chevy Sonic platform. Which is pretty small. It’s almost as if GM is making a mistake putting 200 miles of range into a car that no one would be happy driving 200 miles/3 hours in. There is some amount of psychology built into that 200 mile number – people want to see a range number starting with a “2” before they feel comfortable buying an electric car, regardless of how far they drive it.
The concept has a little crossover style to it, which means it’s likely the batteries are going in the floor like Tesla and the car is sitting up on top of the batteries, 4-5″ higher than normal. This is a good design in that you still get trunk space and seating for 5. It might be that this car has a much narrower appeal in the US (where gas is relatively cheap and people like bigger cars), and higher appeal in Europe and Asia which is OK with smaller cars and higher fuel prices.
Another factor is fast-charging. Tesla has their supercharger network they’re constructing, but its proprietary (for now). The 90kW CCS charging standard needs to take off before people start feeling comfortable buying EVs. The recharge time on a 90kW station from a near-empty 200 mile EV battery is rather quick – the first 75 miles will recharge in under 15 minutes, allowing people to get around and finish their errands.
Finally, price. $30,000 after the federal rebate is still too much for a Sonic-sized car. Even factoring in a $3,000 premium for it being a crossover and $7,000 in first five years gasoline vs. electricity savings. The base model at $30,000 is going to need to be very well equipped (LT model) if it wants to attract buyers. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of price cuts until the $7,500 tax credit starts to expire for GM and Nissan, and they have to reduce the price of their smaller EVs to around $25K before people get interested.